Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Circle The Wagons: DeLay and Lampson Will Vie For Seat

DeLay was able to secure the GOP nod in TX-22 (he received 62% of the vote) but not by the margin expected from a sitting incumbent in a Republican leaning district. DeLay remains as vulnerable as people have been saying he is. Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, said:

"DeLay will have to capture two-thirds of the vote in order to claim he's out of trouble."

DeLay came up just shy of that magic number and that's not good news for DeLay.

In 2004 Bush took 64% of the vote in DeLay's district while DeLay himself only got 55% and he was running against a weak Democratic challenger (not to mention that that election was pre-indictment and before the Abramoff scandal broke).

DeLay can celebrate today but he's going to have a fight on his hands in the coming months. With lower support, a cloud of controversy surrounding him, and something he hasn't seen in a long while, a well funded opponent with a bone to pick, DeLay will be fighting for his political life in the coming months.

1 Comments:

  • 62% of the vote is in fact a pretty solid victory in any election plus the guy has the name rec that comes with 20years of being a representative. But I digress....

    Heres the election results in greater detail:

    2006 Primary
    Tom Campbell 9,937 29.97%
    Tom DeLay 20,558 62.00%
    Total Cast: 33,160 100.0%

    *Note Delay won by getting nearly 2 of every 3 votes cast. Also note that he received over 20,500 votes alone, with his closest challenger recieving nearly 10,000 -- Now lets look at the previous primary election, where DeLay had no competion, to show Tuesday's turnout was not to be considered low by any means.

    2004 Primary
    Tom DeLay 15,490 [= Total cast]

    *Note: Here the numbers reflect that a) Delay would have beat his toughest 'o6 competition, Campbell, with the numbers of the 'o4 election where he had nay a challenger. This virtually means he could have won in his sleep (or say while being completly out of the district all together in Dc @ a fundraiser for his benefit) with the support he shares in this district.

    The turnout was not low or to be considered "only the faithful" (in terms of voting solely for delay). The numbers shows that Delay himself was able to turn out more than 25% more voters than he enjoyed in the the 'o4 election. Campbell nearly missed collecting 2/3 of all the number of total votes cast in 'o4. For those keeping score, combined -- they doubled the figures of 'o4 totals. Thats not even bothering to show the numbers of the other 2 candidates in the 'o6 race. So cant say it was low, or what ever point you were trying to reassure yourself with.

    In sum, I'm not going to be as hasty to say that hes in trouble until hes gone for good.

    Link to election results used in this response:
    http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/index.shml

    By Anonymous Cautiously_pesimistic_Ind, at 12:51 AM  

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